Irtysh Omsk 0–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

A. Sapeta 73'

11/15/2020

First League · Round 22Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk21%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.36

Irtysh Omsk

0.75

Nizhny Novgorod

1.36

Nizhny Novgorod creates 81% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

0.57

creates per match

1.20

1.52

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.57

Nizhny Novgorod

1.20

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.52

Nizhny Novgorod

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

49%

Irtysh Omsk or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

79%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

6%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

53%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

17%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

4%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

74%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

39%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

29%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.20 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

21%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

51%

Nizhny Novgorod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

29'

47'

63'

73'

75'

A. Shleermakher← S. Podoksenov

77'

Igor Kireev

78'

N. Kakkoev← N. Kalinskiy

81'

I. Buryukin← R. Gordienko

83'

A. Stavpets← I. Gorbunov

85'

M. Gashchenkov← A. Sharipov

89'

A. Tretjakov← V. Steklov

90'

Anton Krotov

90+2'

M. Osinov← T. Suleymanov

90+4'

D. Yugaldin← A. Popov

Irtysh3-4-3

Nizhny4-3-3

93

▼

Suleymano

17

▼

Gorbunov

78

▼

Kalinskiy

8

▼

Popov

37

▼

Sharipov

41

⚽

11

7

24

5

90

60

5

3

15

23

8

▼

Podokseno

20

▼

Steklov

88

Kireev

83

Shmykov

18

▼

Gordienko

77

Sychevoy

Manager: E. Kharlachev

75'▲A. Shleermakher←▼S. Podoksenov

81'▲I. Buryukin←▼R. Gordienko

89'▲A. Tretjakov←▼V. Steklov

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

17Shleermakher27Buryukin10Tretjakov1Avdyushkin2Krikunenko16Eremenko21Kiselev22Tarabanov29Kerbs30Shakuro94Arshakyan

Manager: R. Evdokimov

78'▲N. Kakkoev←▼N. Kalinskiy

83'▲A. Stavpets←▼I. Gorbunov

85'▲M. Gashchenkov←▼A. Sharipov

90+2'▲M. Osinov←▼T. Suleymanov

90+4'▲D. Yugaldin←▼A. Popov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

22Kakkoev61Stavpets6Gashchenkov81Osinov98Yugaldin91Galadzhan99Sysuev

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Irtysh Omsk 1-0 in First League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: A. Sapeta (73').

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.

Irtysh Omsk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Nizhny Novgorod