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Nizhny Novgorod vs Enisey — First League 2024

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Preview
15:00
Enisey
Enisey
10/10/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Sovcombank Arena
Big match
38%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
38%26%35%

Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod38%
×Draw26%
Enisey35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.33
Enisey
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 42 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.29
Enisey
1.10

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Enisey
1.38

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
65%
Nizhny Novgorod or Enisey
74%
Draw or Enisey
62%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
17%
Enisey wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
74%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
38%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
15%
Enisey 1+ goals
72%
Enisey 2+ goals
36%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
52%
Enisey (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.29 + Enisey defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Enisey attack 1.10 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%
level
26%
Enisey scores more
35%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Novgorod
WLWW
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nizhny Novgorod face Enisey (First League)

First League returns with Nizhny Novgorod hosting Enisey. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nizhny Novgorod host Enisey at Sovcombank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.