Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 Enisey: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Enisey

A. Shumskikh 90+3'

V. Tskhovrebov 30'

V. Kichin 16' (pen)

4/28/2021

First League · Round 39Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod49%

×Draw27%

Enisey24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Nizhny Novgorod

1.42

Enisey

0.90

Nizhny Novgorod creates 58% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 124 away

1.40

creates per match

1.02

0.78

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.40

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

Enisey

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

76%

Nizhny Novgorod or Enisey

73%

Draw or Enisey

51%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

24%

Enisey wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

76%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

41%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

17%

Enisey 1+ goals

59%

Enisey 2+ goals

23%

Enisey 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

67%

Enisey (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Enisey attack 1.02 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

49%

level

27%

Enisey scores more

24%

Nizhny Novgorod at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Mikhail Gashchenkov

16'

V. KichinPenalty

30'

V. Tskhovrebov

46'

B. Kavtaradze← M. Sultonov

52'

Aleksey Shumskikh

56'

I. Gorbunov← I. Ediev

57'

Artem Abramov

63'

A. Popov← T. Suleymanov

68'

N. Markov← A. Abramov

68'

N. Razdorskikh← A. Lomakin

70'

L. Goglichidze← K. Malyarov

72'

M. Sukhomlinov← E. Pesikov

78'

E. Ivanov← K. Garbuz

80'

A. Stavpets← I. Temnikov

87'

Nikolay Markov

90'

Igor Gorbunov

90+3'

A. Shumskikh

Nizhny4-1-4-1

Enisey4-2-3-1

23

Lescano

17

▼

Pesikov

32

Glushkov

64

Lanin

8

▼

Lomakin

7

Zotov

80

▼

Abramov

2

⚽

Kichin

15

⚽

Tskhovreb

19

▼

Garbuz

1

Oparin

99

Sysuev

7

▼

Malyarov

24

Gotsuk

3

▼

Ediev

5

⚽

Shumskikh

11

▼

Temnikov

10

Yansane

14

▼

Sultonov

78

Kalinskiy

6

Gashchenk

93

▼

Suleymano

Manager: R. Evdokimov

46'▲B. Kavtaradze←▼M. Sultonov

56'▲I. Gorbunov←▼I. Ediev

63'▲A. Popov←▼T. Suleymanov

70'▲L. Goglichidze←▼K. Malyarov

80'▲A. Stavpets←▼I. Temnikov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

77Kavtaradze17Gorbunov8Popov91Goglichidze61Stavpets1Anisimov9Galadzhan20Komolov23Zuykov37Sharipov41Sapeta90Smirnov

Manager: A. Alferov

68'▲N. Markov←▼A. Abramov

68'▲N. Razdorskikh←▼A. Lomakin

72'▲M. Sukhomlinov←▼E. Pesikov

78'▲E. Ivanov←▼K. Garbuz

Enisey substitutes

5Markov12Razdorskikh33Sukhomlinov21Ivanov6Rukas10Komkov13Galimov26Bilonoh30Rebrov