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Nizhny Novgorod vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
11/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod48%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.47
Chertanovo Moscow
0.99

Nizhny Novgorod creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Chertanovo Moscow
1.55

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
75%
Nizhny Novgorod or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
52%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
24%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
77%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
18%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
63%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
26%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
65%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
48%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
25%

Nizhny Novgorod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Chertanovo Moscow

Nizhny Novgorod beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-2 in First League on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.