Chertanovo Moscow 3–1 Nizhny Novgorod

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

11/14/2018

First League · Round 22Stadion Avangard (Domodedovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow33%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Chertanovo Moscow

1.13

Nizhny Novgorod

1.25

Nizhny Novgorod creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.30

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

Nizhny Novgorod

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

61%

Chertanovo Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

67%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

68%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

31%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

71%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

36%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

46%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

33%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

39%

Nizhny Novgorod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff