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Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod32%
×Draw27%
Baltika40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.14
Baltika
1.31

Baltika creates 15% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.15
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.53
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
60%
Nizhny Novgorod or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
68%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
13%
Baltika wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
68%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
32%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%
Baltika 1+ goals
73%
Baltika 2+ goals
38%
Baltika 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
44%
Baltika (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Baltika attack 1.10 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
32%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
40%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika

Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.