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Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod — Premier League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika51%
×Draw26%
Nizhny Novgorod22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.48
Nizhny Novgorod
0.88

Baltika creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod
0.78

allows per match

Baltika
0.97
Nizhny Novgorod
1.68

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
78%
Baltika or Nizhny Novgorod
74%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
49%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
26%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
77%
Baltika 2+ goals
43%
Baltika 3+ goals
19%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
59%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
22%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
70%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baltika scores more
51%
level
26%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
22%

Baltika at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Baltika 2–2 Nizhny Novgorod

Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.