Nizhny Novgorod 0–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

3/9/2020

First League · Round 26Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod40%

×Draw28%

Baltika32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod

1.22

Baltika

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 112 away

1.42

creates per match

1.32

0.79

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.42

Baltika

1.32

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.79

Baltika

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

68%

Nizhny Novgorod or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

60%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

17%

Baltika wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

70%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

34%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

12%

Baltika 1+ goals

65%

Baltika 2+ goals

29%

Baltika 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

56%

Baltika (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.79 · 57 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.42 + Baltika defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Baltika attack 1.32 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

40%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

32%

Nizhny Novgorod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

30'

33'

45+1'

51'

68'

70'

P. Ignatovich← A. Stavpets

70'

M. Markin← Allef

76'

S. Prychynenko← M. Kuzmin

78'

N. Glushkov← A. Chochiev

81'

P. Komolov← M. Palienko

82'

S. Prychynenko

85'

S. Aliev← V. Grulev

90+3'

E. Latyshonok

Nizhny

Baltika

1

44

2

26

18

10

17

▼

Chochiev

38

Kazaev

96

▼

Kuzmin

9

Makarchuk

33

▼

90

29

27

24

30

61

▼

Stavpets

41

Sapeta

78

Kalinskiy

10

▼

Palienko

19

Obolskiy

17

▼

Grulev

Manager: R. Evdokimov

70'▲P. Ignatovich←▼A. Stavpets

81'▲P. Komolov←▼M. Palienko

85'▲S. Aliev←▼V. Grulev

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

13Ignatovich20Komolov9Aliev1Anisimov3Gadzhibekov7Maksimenko8Chudin23Zuykov58Zuev71Sagitov83Shmykov99Sysuev

Manager: E. Kaleshin

70'▲M. Markin←▼Allef

76'▲S. Prychynenko←▼M. Kuzmin

78'▲N. Glushkov←▼A. Chochiev

Baltika substitutes

11Markin23Prychynenko7Glushkov3Plopa8Dudiev27Maklakov32Pomazan

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika

Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika drew 0-0 in First League on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika