Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Akron: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akron

9/27/2020

First League · Round 12Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod46%

×Draw29%

Akron25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.87

Nizhny Novgorod

1.29

Akron

0.87

Nizhny Novgorod creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

0.77

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.41

Akron

0.97

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.77

Akron

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

75%

Nizhny Novgorod or Akron

71%

Draw or Akron

54%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

21%

Akron wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

72%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

37%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

14%

Akron 1+ goals

58%

Akron 2+ goals

22%

Akron 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

65%

Akron (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.41 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Akron attack 0.97 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

46%

level

29%

Akron scores more

25%

Nizhny Novgorod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff