Akron 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Akron

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Nizhny Novgorod

A. Dzyuba 57'

J. Boselli 34' (pen)

D. Lesovoy 15'

11/29/2025

Premier League · Round 17Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron41%

×Draw25%

Nizhny Novgorod33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Akron

1.46

Nizhny Novgorod

1.29

Akron creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

1.81

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Akron

1.25

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Akron

1.81

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Akron or draw

67%

Akron or Nizhny Novgorod

75%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

59%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

20%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

77%

Akron 2+ goals

43%

Akron 3+ goals

18%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

72%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

37%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

55%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akron scores more

41%

level

25%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

33%

Akron at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Karic

Nizhny Novgorod · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

D. Lesovoy

31'

Juan Manuel BoselliPenalty confirmed

33'

Maksim Boldyrev

34'

J. BoselliPenalty

46'

K. Bistrovic← A. Djurasovic

46'

I. Djakovac← S. Loncar

57'

A. Dzyuba↳ K. Bistrovic

58'

L. Ticic← D. Lesovoy

66'

O. Olusegun← N. Ermakov

75'

E. Sevikyan← Y. Rocha

80'

V. Aleksandrov← J. Boselli

82'

R. Escoval← M. Boldyrev

88'

Andrey IvlevGoal cancelled

90+6'

Nikita Medvedev

90+4'

Andrey Ivlev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AkronNizhny

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots16

10Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target6

3Off Target6

4Blocked4

13Inside Box11

0Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

311Total Passes262

221Accurate Passes178

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4