Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akron vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
3/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Crystal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Akron36%
×Draw29%
Nizhny Novgorod34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.10
Nizhny Novgorod
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 52 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod
0.90

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akron or draw
66%
Akron or Nizhny Novgorod
71%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
64%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
15%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
67%
Akron 2+ goals
30%
Akron 3+ goals
10%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
65%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
29%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
51%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Akron scores more
36%
level
29%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
34%

Akron at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs Nizhny Novgorod

Akron and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in First League on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Crystal Stadium in Zhigulevsk.