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Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Kuban U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kuban U19
Kuban U19
5/19/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 10Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod U1929%
×Draw28%
Kuban U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.04
Kuban U19
1.33

Kuban U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.22
Kuban U19
1.00

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.66
Kuban U19
0.86

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par
Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod U19 ↓

Kuban U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw
57%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 or Kuban U19
72%
Draw or Kuban U19
71%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
11%
Kuban U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
65%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
28%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
9%
Kuban U19 1+ goals
74%
Kuban U19 2+ goals
38%
Kuban U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Kuban U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 74 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.22 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
29%
level
28%
Kuban U19 scores more
43%

Kuban U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Kuban U19

Kuban U19 beat Nizhny Novgorod U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.