Kuban U19 3–0 Nizhny Novgorod U19: Result & Stats

Kuban U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod U19

B. Drobot 90'

K. Drozdov 77'

N. Pashkov 59'

4/14/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 5Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kuban U1954%

×Draw22%

Nizhny Novgorod U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban U19Expected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.27

Kuban U19

1.97

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.27

Kuban U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 74 away

1.86

creates per match

1.12

1.43

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Kuban U19

1.86

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.12

allows per match

Kuban U19

1.43

Nizhny Novgorod U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban U19+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban U19 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kuban U19 or draw

75%

Kuban U19 or Nizhny Novgorod U19

78%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19

46%

Winning margin

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

31%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kuban U19 1+ goals

86%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

58%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

31%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals

72%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals

36%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban U19 attack 1.86 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + Kuban U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kuban U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more

25%

Kuban U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

N. Pashkov

77'

K. Drozdov

90'

B. Drobot

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff