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Nitra II vs Beluša — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra II
Nitra II
CANC
15:00
Beluša
Beluša
6/13/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nitra II40%
×Draw21%
Beluša38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra II
1.91
Beluša
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nitra II
2.57
Beluša
1.60

allows per match

Nitra II
2.14
Beluša
1.25

finishing

Nitra II+0.00on par
Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra II ↓

Beluša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nitra II or draw
62%
Nitra II or Beluša
79%
Draw or Beluša
60%

Winning margin

Nitra II wins by 2+
21%
Beluša wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nitra II 1+ goals
85%
Nitra II 2+ goals
57%
Nitra II 3+ goals
30%
Beluša 1+ goals
85%
Beluša 2+ goals
56%
Beluša 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Nitra II (draw refunded)
51%
Beluša (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra II attack 2.57 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Beluša attack 1.60 + Nitra II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nitra II scores more
40%
level
21%
Beluša scores more
38%

Nitra II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nitra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nitra II vs Beluša — Match Preview

Nitra II face Beluša on June 13, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.