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Beluša vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
AWD
3 – 0
Nitra II
Nitra II
6/20/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beluša65%
×Draw19%
Nitra II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
2.21
Nitra II
0.96

Beluša creates 130% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
85%
Beluša or Nitra II
81%
Draw or Nitra II
35%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
42%
Nitra II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
89%
Beluša 2+ goals
65%
Beluša 3+ goals
38%
Nitra II 1+ goals
62%
Nitra II 2+ goals
25%
Nitra II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
81%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Beluša scores more
65%
level
19%
Nitra II scores more
15%

Beluša at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beluša vs Nitra II — Match Preview

Beluša face Nitra II on June 20, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Beluša host Nitra II at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.