Niroye Zamini 2–3 Mes Rafsanjan: Result & Stats

Niroye Zamini

FT

2 – 3

Mes Rafsanjan

A. Khodadadi 73'

M. Souri 22'

A. Pourmohammad 89'

H. Sheikholeslami 25'

J. Beam 16'

1/26/2020

Azadegan League · Round 21Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Niroye Zamini28%

×Draw29%

Mes Rafsanjan43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niroye ZaminiExpected goals in this matchMes Rafsanjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.23

Niroye Zamini

0.95

Mes Rafsanjan

1.23

Mes Rafsanjan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 15 away

0.77

creates per match

1.60

0.85

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Niroye Zamini

0.77

Mes Rafsanjan

1.60

allows per match

Niroye Zamini

0.85

Mes Rafsanjan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw

57%

Niroye Zamini or Mes Rafsanjan

71%

Draw or Mes Rafsanjan

72%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

10%

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

61%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

25%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

7%

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

71%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

35%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

40%

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.60 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more

28%

level

29%

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

43%

Mes Rafsanjan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Beam

22'

M. Souri

25'

H. Sheikholeslami

73'

A. Khodadadi

89'

A. Pourmohammad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff