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Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
3 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
9/2/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan49%
×Draw27%
Niroye Zamini24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.39
Niroye Zamini
0.89

Mes Rafsanjan creates 56% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.70
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
76%
Mes Rafsanjan or Niroye Zamini
73%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
51%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
23%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
75%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
40%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
16%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
59%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
22%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
67%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.70 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.39

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
49%
level
27%
Niroye Zamini scores more
24%

Mes Rafsanjan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Rafsanjan 3–0 Niroye Zamini

Mes Rafsanjan beat Niroye Zamini 3-0 in Azadegan League on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.