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Niroye Zamini vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 2
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
B. Ahmadi 3'
A. Asgari 30'
M. Ghanbari 7' (pen)
8/2/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Niroye Zamini30%
×Draw36%
Mes Kerman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
0.74
Mes Kerman
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 102 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.77
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.85
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
66%
Niroye Zamini or Mes Kerman
64%
Draw or Mes Kerman
70%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
9%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
52%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
17%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
4%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
55%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
19%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
47%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
30%
level
36%
Mes Kerman scores more
34%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Ahmadi
7'
M. GhanbariPenalty
30'
A. Asgari
71'
90'
B. Rashid Farrokhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niroye Zamini vs Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Niroye Zamini 2-1 in Azadegan League on August 2, 2020.

Goals: B. Ahmadi (3'), M. Ghanbari (7' pen), A. Asgari (30').

The match was played at Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium in Eslamshahr.