Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Kerman vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
A. Khodamoradi 35'
9/4/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mes Kerman44%
×Draw33%
Niroye Zamini22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.04
Niroye Zamini
0.64

Mes Kerman creates 63% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
78%
Mes Kerman or Niroye Zamini
67%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
56%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
18%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
65%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
28%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
9%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
47%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
14%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
67%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
44%
level
33%
Niroye Zamini scores more
22%

Mes Kerman at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. Khodamoradi
Mes
Niroye
F. Hosseinkhani
Manager: F. Hosseinkhani
A. Rouzbehani
Manager: A. Rouzbehani

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Niroye Zamini

Niroye Zamini beat Mes Kerman 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Khodamoradi (35').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.