Niroye Zamini 1–1 Be'sat Kermanshah: Result & Stats

Niroye Zamini

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Be'sat Kermanshah

4/22/2025

Azadegan League · Round 30Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Niroye Zamini39%

×Draw35%

Be'sat Kermanshah26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niroye ZaminiExpected goals in this matchBe'sat Kermanshah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.70

Niroye Zamini

0.92

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.70

Niroye Zamini creates 31% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

0.77

creates per match

0.55

0.85

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Niroye Zamini

0.77

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.55

allows per match

Niroye Zamini

0.85

Be'sat Kermanshah

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw

74%

Niroye Zamini or Be'sat Kermanshah

65%

Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah

61%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

14%

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

60%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

23%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

7%

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals

50%

Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals

16%

Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

60%

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more

39%

level

35%

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more

26%

Niroye Zamini at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff