Be'sat Kermanshah 1–0 Niroye Zamini: Result & Stats

Be'sat Kermanshah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niroye Zamini

E. Mirjavan 11'

12/7/2024

Azadegan League · Round 13Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah42%

×Draw34%

Niroye Zamini24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be'sat KermanshahExpected goals in this matchNiroye Zamini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.68

Be'sat Kermanshah

1.00

Niroye Zamini

0.68

Be'sat Kermanshah creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 49 away

0.91

creates per match

0.78

0.58

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.91

Niroye Zamini

0.78

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.58

Niroye Zamini

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Niroye Zamini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw

76%

Be'sat Kermanshah or Niroye Zamini

66%

Draw or Niroye Zamini

58%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+

16%

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals

63%

Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals

26%

Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals

8%

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

49%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

15%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)

63%

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more

42%

level

34%

Niroye Zamini scores more

24%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

E. Mirjavan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff