Niroye Zamini 0–1 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Niroye Zamini

FT

0 – 1

Aluminium Arak

P. Miri 84'

2/15/2020

Azadegan League · Round 24Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Niroye Zamini26%

×Draw36%

Aluminium Arak37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niroye ZaminiExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

0.85

Niroye Zamini

0.66

Aluminium Arak

0.85

Aluminium Arak creates 29% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 20 away

0.77

creates per match

0.85

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Niroye Zamini

0.77

Aluminium Arak

0.85

allows per match

Niroye Zamini

0.85

Aluminium Arak

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–119%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw

63%

Niroye Zamini or Aluminium Arak

64%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

74%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

7%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

48%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

14%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

3%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

57%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

21%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

41%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.66

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more

26%

level

36%

Aluminium Arak scores more

37%

Aluminium Arak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

84'

P. Miri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff