Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aluminium Arak vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 2
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
P. Miri 75' (pen)
A. Khodadadi 60'
A. Rostami 18'
10/5/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aluminium Arak44%
×Draw32%
Niroye Zamini24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.10
Niroye Zamini
0.73

Aluminium Arak creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 49 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.11
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.67
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
76%
Aluminium Arak or Niroye Zamini
68%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
56%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
18%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
67%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
30%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
10%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
52%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
17%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
65%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.11 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
44%
level
32%
Niroye Zamini scores more
24%

Aluminium Arak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Rostami
60'
A. Khodadadi
75'
P. MiriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Aluminium Arak 1–2 Niroye Zamini

Niroye Zamini beat Aluminium Arak 2-1 in Azadegan League on October 5, 2019.

Goals: A. Rostami (18'), A. Khodadadi (60'), P. Miri (75' pen).

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.