Niort 1–3 Nancy: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nancy

M. Thiam 56' (OG)

M. Biron 70' (pen), 48', 11'

11/6/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Niort40%

×Draw28%

Nancy32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchNancy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.12

Niort

1.28

Nancy

1.12

Niort creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

1.09

creates per match

1.02

1.22

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Nancy

1.02

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Nancy

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Nancy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Nancy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

68%

Niort or Nancy

72%

Draw or Nancy

60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

18%

Nancy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

72%

Niort 2+ goals

37%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Nancy 1+ goals

67%

Nancy 2+ goals

31%

Nancy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

55%

Nancy (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Nancy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Nancy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Nancy attack 1.02 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more

40%

level

28%

Nancy scores more

32%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Biron

Nancy · F

9.0

Match Events

11'

M. Biron↳ S. Dewaele

39'

Thomas Basila

48'

M. Biron↳ M. Thiam

52'

S. Renel← B. Doukansy

56'

M. ThiamOwn goal

68'

L. Cissé← M. Thiam

70'

M. BironPenalty

72'

B. M'bondo← J. Moutachy

72'

I. Sissoko← L. Vallier

80'

S. Karamoko← G. Lefebvre

83'

Bradley Matufueni Mbondo

83'

S. Cissé← M. Zemzemi

89'

Elliot Simões← M. Biron

89'

W. Bondo← S. Dewaele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortNancy

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots8

8Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target5

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

499Total Passes363

407Accurate Passes264

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Niort 1–3 Nancy

Nancy beat Niort 3-1 in Ligue 2 on November 6, 2021.

Goals: M. Biron (11', 48', 70' pen), M. Thiam (56' o.g.).

Niort controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Nancy — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 1–3 Nancy