Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nancy vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Nancy
Nancy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
Joseph Mendes 83'
B. Boutobba 48'
4/16/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Marcel-Picot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Nancy41%
×Draw28%
Niort32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nancy
1.29
Niort
1.10

Nancy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Nancy
1.03
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Nancy
1.36
Niort
1.54

finishing

Nancy+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nancy ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nancy or draw
68%
Nancy or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
59%

Winning margin

Nancy wins by 2+
18%
Niort wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nancy 1+ goals
72%
Nancy 2+ goals
37%
Nancy 3+ goals
14%
Niort 1+ goals
67%
Niort 2+ goals
30%
Niort 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nancy (draw refunded)
56%
Niort (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nancy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.36 · 91 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nancy attack 1.03 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Niort attack 0.85 + Nancy defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nancy scores more
41%
level
28%
Niort scores more
32%

Nancy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. BoutobbaNiortNiort · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
Lenny Vallier
48'
B. Boutobba↳ M. Michel
58'
B. Doukansy← D. Louiserre
60'
A. Jung← G. Lefebvre
61'
W. Bondo← N. El Aynaoui
70'
J. Olaitan← M. Zemzemi
76'
A. Francke← G. Haag
83'
Joseph Mendes↳ L. Vallier
90+1'
T. Tormin← L. Vallier

Possession

60%Nancy

Shots

10Nancy

Pass accuracy

53%Nancy

Statistics

NancyNiort
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots11
2Corners5
16Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots11
1On Target6
7Off Target3
2Blocked2
4Inside Box10
6Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
509Total Passes345
415Accurate Passes253
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Nancy 0 – 2 Niort

Niort beat Nancy 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 16, 2022.

Goals: B. Boutobba (48'), Joseph Mendes (83').

Nancy controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Picot in Tomblaine.