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Niort vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
4/24/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Niort43%
×Draw27%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.35
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.09

Niort creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 20 away

creates per match

Niort
1.11
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
0.90

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.60

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Gazelec FC Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
70%
Niort or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
73%
Draw or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
57%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
20%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
74%
Niort 2+ goals
39%
Niort 3+ goals
15%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals
66%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals
30%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
59%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.11 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 0.90 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Niort scores more
43%
level
27%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more
30%

Niort at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Niort 4–1 Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Niort beat Gazelec FC Ajaccio 4-1 in Ligue 2 on April 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.