Gazelec FC Ajaccio 0–1 Niort: Result & Stats

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

A. Dona N'Doh 90+3' (pen)

11/30/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Ange-Casanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio36%

×Draw29%

Niort35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gazelec FC AjaccioExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.08

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1.10

Niort

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 96 away

0.67

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

0.67

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1.33

Niort

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelec FC Ajaccio ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gazelec FC Ajaccio or draw

65%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio or Niort

71%

Draw or Niort

64%

Winning margin

Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+

14%

Niort wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals

67%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals

30%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals

10%

Niort 1+ goals

66%

Niort 2+ goals

29%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)

51%

Niort (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelec FC Ajaccio at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 0.67 + Niort defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Niort attack 0.83 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more

36%

level

29%

Niort scores more

35%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gazelec FC Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Allagbé

Niort · G

8.1

Match Events

27'

48'

48'

56'

58'

W. Jobello← J. Pierazzi

64'

Cyriaque Rivieryan

66'

T. Lebeau← D. Louiserre

72'

J. Marveaux← M. NDoye

77'

A. Baroan← D. Djigla

82'

Alexis Araujo← J. Blayac

83'

87'

87'

88'

90'

90'

90'

90+3'

A. Dona N'DohPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GazelecNiort

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots10

4Corners2

19Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

353Total Passes382

246Accurate Passes279

70%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls24

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides5