Niort 1–2 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dunkerque

P. Bâ 45+6' (pen)

I. Kebbal 14'

F. Diarra 1'

11/21/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort40%

×Draw27%

Dunkerque32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Niort

1.29

Dunkerque

1.13

Niort creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

1.09

creates per match

1.03

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

68%

Niort or Dunkerque

73%

Draw or Dunkerque

60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

18%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

72%

Niort 2+ goals

37%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

68%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

31%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

55%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more

40%

level

27%

Dunkerque scores more

32%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

P. Bâ

Niort · F

7.7

Match Events

1'

F. Diarra

14'

I. Kebbal↳ M. Tchokounté

30'

R. Goteni← A. Gomis

31'

A. Baroan← L. Vallier

45+6'

P. BâPenalty

58'

Joseph Mendes← A. Baroan

69'

L. Pierre← M. Tchokounté

72'

Bilal Boutobba

73'

Redouane Kerrouche

75'

I. Conté← B. Doukansy

81'

G. Bosca← I. Kebbal

81'

J. Romil← F. Diarra

81'

T. Vialla← D. Boudaud

88'

Ibno Ba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortDunkerque

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots9

6Corners5

16Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

409Total Passes411

323Accurate Passes313

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1