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Dunkerque vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
L. Pierre 85'
M. Tchokounté 58'
3/13/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque45%
×Draw28%
Niort28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.33
Niort
0.98

Dunkerque creates 36% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Niort
1.54

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
72%
Dunkerque or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
55%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
21%
Niort wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
74%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
38%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
15%
Niort 1+ goals
62%
Niort 2+ goals
26%
Niort 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
62%
Niort (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Niort attack 0.85 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunkerque scores more
45%
level
28%
Niort scores more
28%

Dunkerque at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
A. MaravalDunkerqueDunkerque · G
7.5

Match Events

24'
Redouane Kerrouche
43'
Brahima Doukansy
58'
M. Tchokounté
59'
Y. Bourhane← B. Doukansy
61'
Billy Ketkeophomphone
73'
Lenny Vallier
75'
Joseph Mendes← O. Kemen
75'
L. Ameka← V. Jacob
77'
L. Pierre← R. Kerrouche
78'
Ibrahima Sory Conté
82'
G. Kilama← Y. Bourhane
85'
F. Diarra← J. Romil
85'
L. Pierre
90+2'
D. Boudaud← I. Kebbal
90+2'
G. Bosca← B. Ketkeophomphone

Possession

54%Dunkerque

Shots

11Dunkerque

Pass accuracy

51%Dunkerque

Statistics

DunkerqueNiort
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots7
5Corners1
21Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots7
4On Target3
1Off Target3
6Blocked1
5Inside Box2
6Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
366Total Passes303
274Accurate Passes216
75%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Dunkerque vs Niort

Dunkerque beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 13, 2021.

Goals: M. Tchokounté (58'), L. Pierre (85').

Dunkerque controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Dunkerque.