Niort 1–1 Chambly Thelle FC: Result & Stats

Niort

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chambly Thelle FC

A. Baroan 84'

T. Jaques 42' (pen)

8/29/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Niort40%

×Draw27%

Chambly Thelle FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchChambly Thelle FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Niort

1.29

Chambly Thelle FC

1.15

Niort creates 12% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

1.09

creates per match

1.06

1.23

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Chambly Thelle FC

1.06

allows per match

Niort

1.23

Chambly Thelle FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Chambly Thelle FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Chambly Thelle FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

67%

Niort or Chambly Thelle FC

73%

Draw or Chambly Thelle FC

60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

18%

Chambly Thelle FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

72%

Niort 2+ goals

37%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Chambly Thelle FC 1+ goals

68%

Chambly Thelle FC 2+ goals

32%

Chambly Thelle FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

55%

Chambly Thelle FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

Chambly Thelle FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Chambly Thelle FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chambly Thelle FC attack 1.06 + Niort defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more

40%

level

27%

Chambly Thelle FC scores more

33%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Yongwa Ngameni

Niort · D

7.5

Match Events

32'

Luka Šušnjara

42'

T. JaquesPenalty

54'

D. Djigla← B. Doukansy

56'

L. Doucouré← M. Martin

58'

Maxence Derrien

71'

S. Renel← O. Kemen

71'

J. Popelard← J. Correa

81'

Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

83'

A. Baroan← G. Koyalipou

83'

J. Moutachy← G. Kilama

84'

A. Baroan↳ D. Yongwa Ngameni

85'

Antoine Baroan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortChambly

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots3

4Corners1

20Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots3

5On Target1

6Off Target1

5Blocked1

7Inside Box2

9Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

476Total Passes276

373Accurate Passes169

78%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3