Chambly Thelle FC 3–2 Niort: Result & Stats

Chambly Thelle FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Niort

F. David 69'

T. Jaques 39'

S. Delos 13'

T. Vion 25'

B. Konaté 21'

12/13/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Sébastien-Charléty (Paris)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chambly Thelle FC40%

×Draw28%

Niort33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chambly Thelle FCExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.12

Chambly Thelle FC

1.26

Niort

1.12

Chambly Thelle FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 94 away

0.97

creates per match

0.83

1.41

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Chambly Thelle FC

0.97

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Chambly Thelle FC

1.41

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chambly Thelle FC+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambly Thelle FC ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chambly Thelle FC or draw

67%

Chambly Thelle FC or Niort

72%

Draw or Niort

60%

Winning margin

Chambly Thelle FC wins by 2+

17%

Niort wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chambly Thelle FC 1+ goals

72%

Chambly Thelle FC 2+ goals

36%

Chambly Thelle FC 3+ goals

13%

Niort 1+ goals

67%

Niort 2+ goals

31%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chambly Thelle FC (draw refunded)

55%

Niort (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chambly Thelle FC at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chambly Thelle FC attack 0.97 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.26

Niort attack 0.83 + Chambly Thelle FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chambly Thelle FC scores more

40%

level

28%

Niort scores more

33%

Chambly Thelle FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chambly Thelle FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

F. David

Chambly Thelle FC · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

21'

25'

39'

42'

46'

M. Derrien← S. Flochon

53'

Jonathan Beaulieu

59'

Guillaume Dequaire

62'

Y. Mamilonne← S. Delos

67'

Medhy Guezoui

67'

Brahim Konate

69'

F. David

75'

J. Popelard← J. Eickmayer

77'

Thibaut Vion

77'

A. Leautey← B. Konaté

80'

Ibrahim Sissoko

84'

Z. Koné← T. Vion

90'

Louis Ameka Autchanga

90'

L. Ameka← D. Djigla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChamblyNiort

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots14

3Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target4

4Off Target7

2Blocked3

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

368Total Passes485

284Accurate Passes402

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2