Niort 1–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bastia

I. Sissoko 67'

B. Santelli 38' (pen)

4/19/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort38%

×Draw28%

Bastia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.13

Niort

1.21

Bastia

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

1.03

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Niort or draw

66%

Niort or Bastia

72%

Draw or Bastia

62%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

16%

Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

70%

Niort 2+ goals

34%

Niort 3+ goals

12%

Bastia 1+ goals

68%

Bastia 2+ goals

31%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

53%

Bastia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bastia attack 1.03 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more

38%

level

28%

Bastia scores more

34%

Niort at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Ibrahima Sory Conté II

Niort · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

Kevin Schur

35'

Julien Boyer

36'

Ibrahima Sory Conté

38'

B. SantelliPenalty

45'

Ibrahim Sissoko

45'

Dominique Guidi

45'

Frank Magri

46'

Z. Boucher← J. Placide

56'

M. Zemzemi← S. Renel

64'

T. Tormin← L. Vallier

67'

I. Sissoko

69'

A. Robic← F. Magri

83'

Joseph Mendes← I. Sissoko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortBastia

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots11

2Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked4

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

379Total Passes426

291Accurate Passes340

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 1–1 Bastia

Niort and Bastia drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on April 19, 2022.

Goals: B. Santelli (38' pen), I. Sissoko (67').

Bastia controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 1–1 Bastia