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Bastia vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Niort
Niort
11/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bastia48%
×Draw28%
Niort24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.36
Niort
0.88

Bastia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.19
Niort
0.83

allows per match

Bastia
0.92
Niort
1.53

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
76%
Bastia or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
52%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
23%
Niort wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
74%
Bastia 2+ goals
39%
Bastia 3+ goals
16%
Niort 1+ goals
59%
Niort 2+ goals
22%
Niort 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
66%
Niort (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 91 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.19 + Niort defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Niort attack 0.83 + Bastia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bastia scores more
48%
level
28%
Niort scores more
24%

Bastia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bastia 2 – 0 Niort

Bastia beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.