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Niort vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
J. Sainati 77' (OG)
P. Bâ 50' (pen)
12/12/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Niort40%
×Draw29%
Ajaccio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.16
Ajaccio
0.99

Niort creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 107 away

creates per match

Niort
1.10
Ajaccio
0.75

allows per match

Niort
1.24
Ajaccio
1.21

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw
69%
Niort or Ajaccio
71%
Draw or Ajaccio
60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
17%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
69%
Niort 2+ goals
32%
Niort 3+ goals
11%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
63%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
26%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
56%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more
40%
level
29%
Ajaccio scores more
31%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
O. KemenNiortNiort · M
7.6

Match Events

50'
P. BâPenalty
61'
F. Mattoir← G. Courtet
74'
D. Djigla← B. Konaté
74'
M. El Idrissy← R. Nouri
77'
J. SainatiOwn goal
80'
B. Doukansy← B. Boutobba
80'
S. Elisor← B. Moussiti-Oko

Possession

47%Niort

Shots

13Niort

Pass accuracy

49%Niort

Statistics

NiortAjaccio
Overview
47%Possession53%
13Total Shots8
6Corners1
11Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target0
6Off Target7
3Blocked1
8Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
398Total Passes445
282Accurate Passes331
71%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls17
0Offsides3

Niort 2 – 0 Ajaccio

Niort beat Ajaccio 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 12, 2020.

Goals: P. Bâ (50' pen), J. Sainati (77' o.g.).

Ajaccio controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.