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Ajaccio vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
CANC
00:00
Niort
Niort
4/24/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade François Coty (Ajaccio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ajaccio49%
×Draw28%
Niort23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.36
Niort
0.82

Ajaccio creates 66% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 93 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.17
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.81
Niort
1.55

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
77%
Ajaccio or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
51%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
24%
Niort wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
74%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
39%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
16%
Niort 1+ goals
56%
Niort 2+ goals
20%
Niort 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
69%
Niort (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 107 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.17 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Niort attack 0.84 + Ajaccio defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ajaccio scores more
49%
level
28%
Niort scores more
23%

Ajaccio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajaccio face Niort (Ligue 2)

Ligue 2 returns with Ajaccio hosting Niort. Match starts April 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ajaccio host Niort at Stade François Coty (Ajaccio).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.