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Niort vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
12/3/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Niort39%
×Draw29%
Ajaccio32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.16
Ajaccio
1.02

Niort creates 14% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 107 away

creates per match

Niort
1.11
Ajaccio
0.75

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Ajaccio
1.21

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw
68%
Niort or Ajaccio
71%
Draw or Ajaccio
61%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
16%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
69%
Niort 2+ goals
32%
Niort 3+ goals
11%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
64%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
27%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
55%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.11 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more
39%
level
29%
Ajaccio scores more
32%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Niort 0–1 Ajaccio

Ajaccio beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort) in Niort.