Nimba Kwado 2–1 Kallon Liberia: Result & Stats

Nimba Kwado

FT

2 – 1

Kallon Liberia

12/3/2023

LFA First Division · Round 12Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nimba Kwado51%

×Draw25%

Kallon Liberia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba KwadoExpected goals in this matchKallon Liberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Nimba Kwado

1.61

Kallon Liberia

1.04

Nimba Kwado creates 55% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

0.71

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Nimba Kwado

1.00

Kallon Liberia

1.38

allows per match

Nimba Kwado

0.71

Kallon Liberia

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Kallon Liberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw

75%

Nimba Kwado or Kallon Liberia

75%

Draw or Kallon Liberia

49%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

27%

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

80%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

48%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

22%

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals

65%

Kallon Liberia 2+ goals

28%

Kallon Liberia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

67%

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Kallon Liberia away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kallon Liberia attack 1.38 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more

51%

level

25%

Kallon Liberia scores more

25%

Nimba Kwado at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff