Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kallon Liberia vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
FT
2 – 4
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
1/28/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 15Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia34%
×Draw23%
Nimba Kwado42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kallon Liberia
1.50
Nimba Kwado
1.69

Nimba Kwado creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kallon Liberia
1.69
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Kallon Liberia
2.23
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw
58%
Kallon Liberia or Nimba Kwado
77%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
66%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
16%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
78%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
44%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
19%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
82%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
50%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
45%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more
34%
level
23%
Nimba Kwado scores more
42%

Nimba Kwado at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Kallon Liberia 2–4 Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat Kallon Liberia 4-2 in LFA First Division on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.