Nimba FC 0–9 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

Nimba FC

FT

0 – 9

LPRC Oilers

5/30/2021

LFA First Division · Round 22Ganta Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nimba FC15%

×Draw22%

LPRC Oilers63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba FCExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.89

Nimba FC

0.80

LPRC Oilers

1.89

LPRC Oilers creates 136% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 75 away

0.36

creates per match

1.60

2.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Nimba FC

0.36

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

Nimba FC

2.18

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba FC+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba FC ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nimba FC or draw

37%

Nimba FC or LPRC Oilers

78%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

85%

Winning margin

Nimba FC wins by 2+

5%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Nimba FC 1+ goals

55%

Nimba FC 2+ goals

19%

Nimba FC 3+ goals

5%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

85%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

56%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Nimba FC (draw refunded)

20%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba FC at home — creates 0.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba FC attack 0.36 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.80

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Nimba FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nimba FC scores more

15%

level

22%

LPRC Oilers scores more

63%

LPRC Oilers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff