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LPRC Oilers vs Nimba FC — LFA First Division 2020

LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
FT
4 – 1
Nimba FC
Nimba FC
2/21/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 11Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

LPRC Oilers54%
×Draw22%
Nimba FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPRC Oilers
1.98
Nimba FC
1.25

LPRC Oilers creates 58% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 10 away

creates per match

LPRC Oilers
1.67
Nimba FC
1.10

allows per match

LPRC Oilers
1.39
Nimba FC
2.30

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par
Nimba FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Nimba FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw
76%
LPRC Oilers or Nimba FC
78%
Draw or Nimba FC
46%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
32%
Nimba FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
86%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
59%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
31%
Nimba FC 1+ goals
71%
Nimba FC 2+ goals
36%
Nimba FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
69%
Nimba FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Nimba FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Nimba FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nimba FC attack 1.10 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more
54%
level
22%
Nimba FC scores more
24%

LPRC Oilers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: LPRC Oilers 4–1 Nimba FC

LPRC Oilers beat Nimba FC 4-1 in LFA First Division on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.