Nilüfer Belediye 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor

Nilüfer Belediye

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bursa Yıldırımspor

E. Kaya 54'

10/25/2025

League #552 · Group 1 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nilüfer Belediye37%

×Draw33%

Bursa Yıldırımspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nilüfer BelediyeExpected goals in this matchBursa Yıldırımspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.83

Nilüfer Belediye

0.96

Bursa Yıldırımspor

0.83

Nilüfer Belediye creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nilüfer Belediye

0.67

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

allows per match

Nilüfer Belediye

0.67

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nilüfer Belediye+0.00on par

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nilüfer Belediye ↓

Bursa Yıldırımspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nilüfer Belediye or draw

70%

Nilüfer Belediye or Bursa Yıldırımspor

67%

Draw or Bursa Yıldırımspor

63%

Winning margin

Nilüfer Belediye wins by 2+

14%

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nilüfer Belediye 1+ goals

62%

Nilüfer Belediye 2+ goals

25%

Nilüfer Belediye 3+ goals

7%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals

56%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals

20%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nilüfer Belediye (draw refunded)

55%

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nilüfer Belediye at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nilüfer Belediye attack 0.67 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + Nilüfer Belediye defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nilüfer Belediye scores more

37%

level

33%

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more

30%

Nilüfer Belediye at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nilüfer Belediye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

E. Kaya↳ E. Karaoglu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff