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Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Nilüfer Belediye — League #552 2026

Bursa Yıldırımspor
Bursa Yıldırımspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nilüfer Belediye
Nilüfer Belediye
M. Bektas 57', 9' (pen)
M. Kucukdurmus 40', 6'
3/1/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor37%
×Draw28%
Nilüfer Belediye35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.17
Nilüfer Belediye
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.00
Nilüfer Belediye
1.00

allows per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.25
Nilüfer Belediye
1.33

finishing

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par
Nilüfer Belediye+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursa Yıldırımspor ↓

Nilüfer Belediye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw
65%
Bursa Yıldırımspor or Nilüfer Belediye
72%
Draw or Nilüfer Belediye
63%

Winning margin

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+
15%
Nilüfer Belediye wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals
69%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals
33%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals
11%
Nilüfer Belediye 1+ goals
68%
Nilüfer Belediye 2+ goals
31%
Nilüfer Belediye 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)
51%
Nilüfer Belediye (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursa Yıldırımspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Nilüfer Belediye away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + Nilüfer Belediye defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nilüfer Belediye attack 1.00 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more
37%
level
28%
Nilüfer Belediye scores more
35%

Bursa Yıldırımspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bursa Yıldırımspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Kucukdurmus↳ K. Koylu
9'
M. BektasPenalty
40'
M. Kucukdurmus↳ K. Koylu
57'
M. Bektas↳ Y. Akyel
90+2'
M. Bektas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Nilüfer Belediye

Bursa Yıldırımspor and Nilüfer Belediye drew 2-2 in League #552 on March 1, 2026.

Goals: M. Kucukdurmus (6', 40'), M. Bektas (9' pen, 57').