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Nikarm vs Mika — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Mika
Mika
5/14/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm26%
×Draw18%
Mika56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.83
Mika
2.70

Mika creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Mika
1.02

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Mika
2.71

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Mika+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Mika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
44%
Nikarm or Mika
82%
Draw or Mika
74%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
13%
Mika wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
84%
Nikarm 2+ goals
54%
Nikarm 3+ goals
28%
Mika 1+ goals
93%
Mika 2+ goals
75%
Mika 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
32%
Mika (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Mika away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Mika defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mika attack 1.02 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nikarm scores more
26%
level
18%
Mika scores more
56%

Mika at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nikarm 3–4 Mika

Mika beat Nikarm 4-3 in First League on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.