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Mika vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
11/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 11RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mika64%
×Draw18%
Nikarm19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
2.59
Nikarm
1.35

Mika creates 92% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Mika
1.98
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Mika or draw
81%
Mika or Nikarm
82%
Draw or Nikarm
36%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
42%
Nikarm wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
92%
Mika 2+ goals
73%
Mika 3+ goals
47%
Nikarm 1+ goals
74%
Nikarm 2+ goals
39%
Nikarm 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
77%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 2.59

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mika scores more
64%
level
18%
Nikarm scores more
19%

Mika at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mika 3 – 0 Nikarm

Mika beat Nikarm 3-0 in First League on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.