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Nikarm vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
3/18/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm13%
×Draw15%
Lernayin Artsakh72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.28
Lernayin Artsakh
3.06

Lernayin Artsakh creates 139% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 81 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
28%
Nikarm or Lernayin Artsakh
85%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
87%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
5%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
72%
Nikarm 2+ goals
37%
Nikarm 3+ goals
14%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
95%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
80%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
16%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nikarm scores more
13%
level
15%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
72%

Lernayin Artsakh at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nikarm 0–6 Lernayin Artsakh

Lernayin Artsakh beat Nikarm 6-0 in First League on March 18, 2025.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.