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Lernayin Artsakh vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
2/22/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh77%
×Draw13%
Nikarm10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
3.08
Nikarm
1.04

Lernayin Artsakh creates 196% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
90%
Lernayin Artsakh or Nikarm
87%
Draw or Nikarm
23%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
58%
Nikarm wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
95%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
81%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
58%
Nikarm 1+ goals
65%
Nikarm 2+ goals
28%
Nikarm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
89%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.08

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
77%
level
13%
Nikarm scores more
10%

Lernayin Artsakh at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lernayin Artsakh 6–0 Nikarm

Lernayin Artsakh beat Nikarm 6-0 in First League on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.