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Nikarm vs Gandzasar — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
0 – 8
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
3/15/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm9%
×Draw13%
Gandzasar78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.05
Gandzasar
3.19

Gandzasar creates 204% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Gandzasar
2.00

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Gandzasar
1.14

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Gandzasar+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Gandzasar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
22%
Nikarm or Gandzasar
87%
Draw or Gandzasar
91%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
3%
Gandzasar wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
65%
Nikarm 2+ goals
28%
Nikarm 3+ goals
9%
Gandzasar 1+ goals
96%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
82%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
11%
Gandzasar (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Gandzasar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Gandzasar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Gandzasar attack 2.00 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Nikarm scores more
9%
level
13%
Gandzasar scores more
78%

Gandzasar at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nikarm 0–8 Gandzasar

Gandzasar beat Nikarm 8-0 in First League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.