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Gandzasar vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
8/25/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Gandzasar82%
×Draw11%
Nikarm7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
3.27
Nikarm
0.88

Gandzasar creates 272% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
2.27
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.02
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
93%
Gandzasar or Nikarm
89%
Draw or Nikarm
18%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
64%
Nikarm wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
96%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
83%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
62%
Nikarm 1+ goals
59%
Nikarm 2+ goals
22%
Nikarm 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
92%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 2.27 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.27

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Gandzasar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Gandzasar scores more
82%
level
11%
Nikarm scores more
7%

Gandzasar at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Gandzasar 2–0 Nikarm

Gandzasar beat Nikarm 2-0 in First League on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.