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Nikarm vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
BKMA II
BKMA II
4/11/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm9%
×Draw12%
BKMA II78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.10
BKMA II
3.29

BKMA II creates 199% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 71 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
22%
Nikarm or BKMA II
88%
Draw or BKMA II
91%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
3%
BKMA II wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
67%
Nikarm 2+ goals
30%
Nikarm 3+ goals
10%
BKMA II 1+ goals
96%
BKMA II 2+ goals
83%
BKMA II 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
11%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Nikarm scores more
9%
level
12%
BKMA II scores more
78%

BKMA II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nikarm 0–6 BKMA II

BKMA II beat Nikarm 6-0 in First League on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.