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BKMA II vs Nikarm — First League 2019

BKMA II
BKMA II
FT
5 – 1
Nikarm
Nikarm
9/17/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

BKMA II83%
×Draw10%
Nikarm6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA II
3.48
Nikarm
0.93

BKMA II creates 274% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

creates per match

BKMA II
2.70
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

BKMA II
1.13
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

BKMA II+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA II ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

BKMA II or draw
94%
BKMA II or Nikarm
90%
Draw or Nikarm
17%

Winning margin

BKMA II wins by 2+
66%
Nikarm wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

BKMA II 1+ goals
97%
BKMA II 2+ goals
85%
BKMA II 3+ goals
65%
Nikarm 1+ goals
61%
Nikarm 2+ goals
24%
Nikarm 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BKMA II (draw refunded)
93%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA II attack 2.70 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.48

Nikarm attack 0.73 + BKMA II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

BKMA II scores more
83%
level
10%
Nikarm scores more
6%

BKMA II at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: BKMA II 5–1 Nikarm

BKMA II beat Nikarm 5-1 in First League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.